Confidence Pools
Pick every winner and assign confidence points — higher confidence means bigger payoffs when you're right.
How It Works
A Confidence Pool takes the classic Pick 'em format and adds a strategic layer. Each week, you pick the winner of every game on the schedule and assign a confidence value to each pick. The confidence value represents how certain you are that your pick will win.
For example, during a standard NFL week with 16 games, you assign values from 1 to 16 — each value used exactly once. Give your most confident pick a 16, your least confident a 1. If your pick wins, you earn the confidence points you assigned. If it loses, you earn zero for that game.
The pool member who accumulates the most confidence points over the course of the season (or week, depending on configuration) wins. This format rewards both picking accuracy and strategic point allocation.
Key Concepts
1 to N (where N = number of games that week)
Each value is used exactly once per week.
Earns the assigned confidence points
Higher confidence = bigger reward.
Earns 0 points
No penalty beyond missing the points.
Cumulative confidence points
Highest total at season end wins.
Strategy Tips
- 1Don't always follow the crowd. If everyone assigns 16 to the same heavy favorite, differentiating on mid-tier games is where you gain an edge.
- 2Protect your high values. Assign your top confidence points to games with the widest perceived margin — not just your favorite team.
- 3Watch the injury reports. A last-minute quarterback change can flip a "sure thing" into a toss-up. Lock picks close to kickoff when possible.
- 4Think about the season arc. Consistency matters more than one big week. Steady 70%+ accuracy with smart allocation beats occasional perfect weeks.
Commissioner Settings
Commissioners can customize the following options when creating a Confidence Pool:
| Setting | Description |
|---|---|
| Lock Picks | Determines when picks lock — at the start of the first game, a designated time, or individually per game kickoff. Default: individual game lock. |
| Hide Picks Until Last Game | Controls when pool members can see others' picks. Options: after last game starts, or after each game locks. Default: after each game locks. |
| Weekly Picks Optional | Allows members to skip weeks for weekly contests. Season standings are still maintained. Default: mandatory. |
| Number of Picks Per Week | How many games require picks each week. Default: all games (16 during a standard NFL week). |
| Max Autopicks | How many times Atlas will auto-submit picks for members who miss the deadline. Default: 0 (no autopicks — missed picks count as losses). |
| Maximum Double Plays | Number of games per week that can be flagged as Double Plays for 2× points. Default: 0. |
| Double Play Usage | Whether a Double Play counts as two games or one game worth double points. Default: 2 wins/losses per game. |
| Tie on Double Play | How to score a Double Play that results in a tie. Default: award 1 win. |
| Drop Weeks | Number of worst weeks to drop from the overall record. Default: 0 (all weeks count). |
| Extend Into Playoffs | Whether the pool continues through the NFL playoffs and Super Bowl. Default: regular season only. |
| Tie-handling | How to handle tied games (rare in NFL). Options: award all a win, award all a loss, or count as half. Default: award all a win. |
| Use Ties in Win % | Whether ties count as half-wins in the winning percentage calculation. Default: omit ties. |
Available Sports
Confidence Pools on Atlas Fantasy are available across multiple sports: